Economia
De seu artigo no WSJ:
"In the end, we learned two things. Periods without stock-market crashes are very safe, in the sense that depressions are extremely unlikely. However, periods experiencing stock-market crashes, such as 2008-09 in the U.S., represent a serious threat. The odds are roughly one-in-five that the current recession will snowball into the macroeconomic decline of 10% or more that is the hallmark of a depression.
- Lições Da Grande Depressão
Causas da Grande Depressão Hoover and Roosevelt − The 1920s was a period of healthy economic growth until President Herbert Hoover instituted anti-market, anti-globalization, anti-immigration, and pro-cartelization policies, Edward Prescott...
- O Caminho Da Crise
Bailout economics – two decades of monetary excesses 1987 Stock market crash 1988-90 Savings and Loan crisis 1990 Stock market “mini-crash” 1990-91 Gulf War I 1990-91 US mini-recession 1994 Mexican peso crisis 1997 Asian financial crisis...
- Como Sair Da Depressão
“It should be clear that any governmental interference with the depression process can only prolong it, thus making things worse from almost everyone’s point of view. Since the depression process is the recovery process, any halting or slowing down...
- Sobre Bilhões E Trilhões
SANTA MONICA, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- There's a $700 trillion elephant in the room and it's time we found out how much it really weighs on the economy. Derivative contracts total about three-quarters of a quadrillion dollars in "notional" amounts,...
- A Queda Do Citigroup
-- March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. dropped below $1 in New York trading for the first time, the latest sign that stock investors are losing confidence in a company that was once the world’s biggest bank by market value. The stock fell to 99 cents...
Economia
Robert Barro Sobre a Probabilidade de uma Depressão
De seu artigo no WSJ:
"In the end, we learned two things. Periods without stock-market crashes are very safe, in the sense that depressions are extremely unlikely. However, periods experiencing stock-market crashes, such as 2008-09 in the U.S., represent a serious threat. The odds are roughly one-in-five that the current recession will snowball into the macroeconomic decline of 10% or more that is the hallmark of a depression.
The bright side of a 20% depression probability is the 80% chance of avoiding a depression. The U.S. had stock-market crashes in 2000-02 (by 42%) and 1973-74 (49%) and, in each case, experienced only mild recessions. Hence, if we are lucky, the current downturn will also be moderate, though likely worse than the other U.S. post-World War II recessions, including 1982."
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- Lições Da Grande Depressão
Causas da Grande Depressão Hoover and Roosevelt − The 1920s was a period of healthy economic growth until President Herbert Hoover instituted anti-market, anti-globalization, anti-immigration, and pro-cartelization policies, Edward Prescott...
- O Caminho Da Crise
Bailout economics – two decades of monetary excesses 1987 Stock market crash 1988-90 Savings and Loan crisis 1990 Stock market “mini-crash” 1990-91 Gulf War I 1990-91 US mini-recession 1994 Mexican peso crisis 1997 Asian financial crisis...
- Como Sair Da Depressão
“It should be clear that any governmental interference with the depression process can only prolong it, thus making things worse from almost everyone’s point of view. Since the depression process is the recovery process, any halting or slowing down...
- Sobre Bilhões E Trilhões
SANTA MONICA, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- There's a $700 trillion elephant in the room and it's time we found out how much it really weighs on the economy. Derivative contracts total about three-quarters of a quadrillion dollars in "notional" amounts,...
- A Queda Do Citigroup
-- March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. dropped below $1 in New York trading for the first time, the latest sign that stock investors are losing confidence in a company that was once the world’s biggest bank by market value. The stock fell to 99 cents...