Economia
A Moody's baixou o rating de Portugal de Baa1 para Ba2 o que coloca os títulos da Répública Portuguesa na categoria de activos especulativos (ou "junk"). Justificando esta decisão com i) os riscos crescentes de que Portugal irá necessitar de um segundo programa de assitência financeira e o aumento da probabilidade de que tal implique uma participação do sector privado (i.e., uma restruturação da dívida) e ii) o que considera ser um risco elevado de que Portugal não consiga atingir os objectivos do défice estabelecidos no Memorando de Entendimento.
Relativamente a este segundo ponto esta agência considera que:
"1) The government's plans to restrain its spending may prove difficult to implement in full in sectors such as healthcare, state-owned enterprises and regional and local governments.
2) The government's plans to improve tax compliance (and, hence, generate the projected additional revenues) within the timeframe of the loan programme and, in combination with the factor above, may hinder the authorities' ability to reduce the budget deficit as targeted.
3) Economic growth may turn out to be weaker than expected, which would compromise the government's deficit reduction targets. Moreover, the anticipated fiscal consolidation and bank deleveraging would further exacerbate this. Consensus growth forecasts for the country have been revised downwards following the EU/IMF loan agreement. Even after these downward revisions, Moody's believes the risks to economic growth remain skewed to the downside.
4) There is a non-negligible possibility that Portugal's banking sector will require support beyond what is currently envisaged in the EU/IMF loan agreement. Any capital infusion into the banking system from the government would add additional debt to its balance sheet." (meus sublinhados)
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Economia
Moody's baixa rating de Portugal
A Moody's baixou o rating de Portugal de Baa1 para Ba2 o que coloca os títulos da Répública Portuguesa na categoria de activos especulativos (ou "junk"). Justificando esta decisão com i) os riscos crescentes de que Portugal irá necessitar de um segundo programa de assitência financeira e o aumento da probabilidade de que tal implique uma participação do sector privado (i.e., uma restruturação da dívida) e ii) o que considera ser um risco elevado de que Portugal não consiga atingir os objectivos do défice estabelecidos no Memorando de Entendimento.
Relativamente a este segundo ponto esta agência considera que:
"1) The government's plans to restrain its spending may prove difficult to implement in full in sectors such as healthcare, state-owned enterprises and regional and local governments.
2) The government's plans to improve tax compliance (and, hence, generate the projected additional revenues) within the timeframe of the loan programme and, in combination with the factor above, may hinder the authorities' ability to reduce the budget deficit as targeted.
3) Economic growth may turn out to be weaker than expected, which would compromise the government's deficit reduction targets. Moreover, the anticipated fiscal consolidation and bank deleveraging would further exacerbate this. Consensus growth forecasts for the country have been revised downwards following the EU/IMF loan agreement. Even after these downward revisions, Moody's believes the risks to economic growth remain skewed to the downside.
4) There is a non-negligible possibility that Portugal's banking sector will require support beyond what is currently envisaged in the EU/IMF loan agreement. Any capital infusion into the banking system from the government would add additional debt to its balance sheet." (meus sublinhados)
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A Comissão Europeia divulgou a primeira avaliação do Programa de Ajsutamento Económico e Financeiro para Portugal. "It is the joint assessment of the three institutions that the programme is on track. The new government that took office on 21 June...
- Ler Os Outros: Don't Blame Moody's For A Messy Euro Crisis - Wolfgang Munchau
"You can always gauge the temperature of the eurozone crisis by the blame game, writes the FT commentator. Last week, the cacophony briefly subsided when everybody who mattered accused the rating agencies of engaging in an anti-European conspiracy. This...
- Avaliação Da Standard & Poors Da Situação De Portugal
Em nota de 31 de Maio, a Standard & Poors refere relativamente à República Portuguesa que: "we believe that the [EU/IMF] program's implementation risks are significant. These stem from potential weakening in political suppor for the prgram,...
- A "vitória" De Portugal
Infelizmente não consegui encontrar tradução, mas fica aqui o texto integral da declaração conjunta do Banco Central Europeu e da Comissão Europeia que o primeiro-ministro qualificou como uma “ vitória importante” obtida por...
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Ed Lazear acredita que é a segunda alternativa. Ele argumenta: "Congress and the Obama administration have used the economic downturn as an excuse to expand the size of government. Calling it a stimulus, they have instead put in place a spending agenda...