Economia
Robert Barro, WSJ
The weak economic recovery in the U.S. and the even weaker performance in much of Europe have renewed calls for ending budget austerity and returning to larger fiscal deficits. Curiously, this plea for more fiscal expansion fails to offer any proof that Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries that chose more budget stimulus have performed better than those that opted for more austerity. Similarly, in the American context, no evidence is offered that past U.S. budget deficits (averaging 9% of GDP between 2009 and 2011) helped to promote the economic recovery.
Two interesting European cases are Germany and Sweden, each of which moved toward rough budget balance between 2009 and 2011 while sustaining comparatively strong growth—the average growth rate per year of real GDP for 2010 and 2011 was 3.6% for Germany and 4.9% for Sweden. If austerity is so terrible, how come these two countries have done so well?
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- Dívida Pública - Mapa Interativo
Our interactive graphic above shows the IMF's latest forecasts (updated in October 2012) for government gross debt as a percentage of GDP through to 2017. It also allows you to input your own long-term assumptions to project the likely path of debt...
- A Dinâmica Da Dívida Pública
There are two things that matter in government-debt dynamics: the difference between real interest rates and GDP growth (r-g), and the primary budget balance as a % of GDP (ie, before interest payments). In any given period the debt stock grows by the...
- Política De Estímulo Não Funciona
Portugal’s Finance Minister: We Tried Stimulus and It Didn’t Work by PETER EAVIS Defending austerity is not getting any easier for Europe’s politicians. And Vitor Gaspar, Portugal’s finance minister, has it harder than others. The country’s...
- Nova Literatura Sobre Programas De Austeridade
Sources* “Austerity and Anarchy, Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2009”, by Jacopo Ponticelli and Hans-Joachim Voth, CEPR Discussion Paper, August 2011 * “Tightening tensions: Fiscal policy and Civil Unrest in Eleven South American...
- O Estímulo Fiscal, Um Ano Depois
Robert Barro, da Harvard University, investiga o tamanho dos multiplicadores de gastos e tributos e conclui, no WSJ: "We can now put the elements together to form a "five-year plan" from 2009 to 2013. The path of incremental government outlays over the...
Economia
Austeridade funciona bem diz Barro
Stimulus Spending Keeps Failing
The weak economic recovery in the U.S. and the even weaker performance in much of Europe have renewed calls for ending budget austerity and returning to larger fiscal deficits. Curiously, this plea for more fiscal expansion fails to offer any proof that Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries that chose more budget stimulus have performed better than those that opted for more austerity. Similarly, in the American context, no evidence is offered that past U.S. budget deficits (averaging 9% of GDP between 2009 and 2011) helped to promote the economic recovery.
Two interesting European cases are Germany and Sweden, each of which moved toward rough budget balance between 2009 and 2011 while sustaining comparatively strong growth—the average growth rate per year of real GDP for 2010 and 2011 was 3.6% for Germany and 4.9% for Sweden. If austerity is so terrible, how come these two countries have done so well?
Mais
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- Dívida Pública - Mapa Interativo
Our interactive graphic above shows the IMF's latest forecasts (updated in October 2012) for government gross debt as a percentage of GDP through to 2017. It also allows you to input your own long-term assumptions to project the likely path of debt...
- A Dinâmica Da Dívida Pública
There are two things that matter in government-debt dynamics: the difference between real interest rates and GDP growth (r-g), and the primary budget balance as a % of GDP (ie, before interest payments). In any given period the debt stock grows by the...
- Política De Estímulo Não Funciona
Portugal’s Finance Minister: We Tried Stimulus and It Didn’t Work by PETER EAVIS Defending austerity is not getting any easier for Europe’s politicians. And Vitor Gaspar, Portugal’s finance minister, has it harder than others. The country’s...
- Nova Literatura Sobre Programas De Austeridade
Sources* “Austerity and Anarchy, Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2009”, by Jacopo Ponticelli and Hans-Joachim Voth, CEPR Discussion Paper, August 2011 * “Tightening tensions: Fiscal policy and Civil Unrest in Eleven South American...
- O Estímulo Fiscal, Um Ano Depois
Robert Barro, da Harvard University, investiga o tamanho dos multiplicadores de gastos e tributos e conclui, no WSJ: "We can now put the elements together to form a "five-year plan" from 2009 to 2013. The path of incremental government outlays over the...