Economia
There are two things that matter in government-debt dynamics: the difference between real interest rates and GDP growth (r-g), and the primary budget balance as a % of GDP (ie, before interest payments). In any given period the debt stock grows by the existing debt stock (d) multiplied by r-g, less the primary budget balance (p).
The simple r-g assumption is one of the most important in debt dynamics: an r-g of greater than zero (when interest rates are greater than GDP growth) means that the debt stock increases over time. An r-g of less than zero causes it to fall.
Our interactive model uses the nominal interest rate (i) approximately equivalent to the ten-year bond yield and allows you to input your own inflation rate, π. Inflation helps reduce the total debt stock over time, by reducing the real value of debt. In our model and using approximations, r-g becomes i - π - g. The greater the inflation rate, the lower r-g becomes.
The second consideration is the primary budget balance. A primary budget surplus causes the debt stock to fall, by allowing the government to pay off some of the existing debt. A primary deficit needs to be financed by further borrowing. As European peripheral countries have found out to their cost, interest rates increase when governments run large budget deficits, and as they do it becomes increasingly difficult to reduce r-g to a sustainable level.
In reality, these variables are all related. When inflation rises, for instance, bondholders will expect a higher nominal interest rate on new debt. If a country runs a larger primary surplus, the interest rate it is forced to pay may fall. Adjustments in countries' deficits will also affect their growth rates. To keep matters simple, we have ignored these interactions. Our calculator shows the evolution of a government's debt stock based directly on the values for inflation, growth, interest rates and the primary deficit that you determine.
Veja gráfico interativo:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/10/daily-chart-7
- Ler Os Outros: Inflation And Debt (wonkish) - Paul Krugman
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Economia
A dinâmica da dívida pública
There are two things that matter in government-debt dynamics: the difference between real interest rates and GDP growth (r-g), and the primary budget balance as a % of GDP (ie, before interest payments). In any given period the debt stock grows by the existing debt stock (d) multiplied by r-g, less the primary budget balance (p).
The simple r-g assumption is one of the most important in debt dynamics: an r-g of greater than zero (when interest rates are greater than GDP growth) means that the debt stock increases over time. An r-g of less than zero causes it to fall.
Our interactive model uses the nominal interest rate (i) approximately equivalent to the ten-year bond yield and allows you to input your own inflation rate, π. Inflation helps reduce the total debt stock over time, by reducing the real value of debt. In our model and using approximations, r-g becomes i - π - g. The greater the inflation rate, the lower r-g becomes.
The second consideration is the primary budget balance. A primary budget surplus causes the debt stock to fall, by allowing the government to pay off some of the existing debt. A primary deficit needs to be financed by further borrowing. As European peripheral countries have found out to their cost, interest rates increase when governments run large budget deficits, and as they do it becomes increasingly difficult to reduce r-g to a sustainable level.
In reality, these variables are all related. When inflation rises, for instance, bondholders will expect a higher nominal interest rate on new debt. If a country runs a larger primary surplus, the interest rate it is forced to pay may fall. Adjustments in countries' deficits will also affect their growth rates. To keep matters simple, we have ignored these interactions. Our calculator shows the evolution of a government's debt stock based directly on the values for inflation, growth, interest rates and the primary deficit that you determine.
Veja gráfico interativo:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/10/daily-chart-7
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- Ler Os Outros: Inflation And Debt (wonkish) - Paul Krugman
Não perder este post sobre em que Krugman comenta uma caixa do capítulo I do Economic Outrlook da OCDE sobre o efeito da inflação sobre a dívida pública (os negritos são meus): "the report has a box dismissing the possibility that a higher inflation...
- Dinâmica Da Dívida Pública
Debt dynamics The maths behind the madness The Economist online Our interactive guide to reducing government debtGOVERNMENT debt dynamics, once an esoteric subject of interest only to macroeconomists, are suddenly in vogue. With Greece...
- A Dinâmica Da Dívida Pública
Debt dynamics- The maths behind the madness-The Economist online GOVERNMENT debt dynamics, once an esoteric subject of interest only to macroeconomists, are suddenly in vogue... Veja aqui a mapa interativa da dívida pública There are two things that...
- Hiperinflação Usa
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said. Prices may increase at rates “close to”...
-
O governo brasileiro tomou a decisão correta em 2003 ? O Blanchard fez as contas e concluiu que : This paper argues that this is the situation the Brazilian economy found itself in in 2002 and 2003. It presents a model of the interaction between...