O Estímulo Fiscal, Um Ano Depois
Robert Barro, da Harvard University, investiga o tamanho dos multiplicadores de gastos e tributos e conclui, no WSJ:
"We can now put the elements together to form a "five-year plan" from 2009 to 2013. The path of incremental government outlays over the five years in billions of dollars is +300, +300, 0, 0, 0, which adds up to +600. The path for GDP is +120, +180, +60, minus 330, minus 330, adding up to minus 300. GDP falls overall because the famous "balanced-budget multiplier"—the response of GDP when government spending and taxes rise together—is negative. This result accords with the familiar pattern whereby countries with larger public sectors tend to grow slower over the long term.
The projected effect on other parts of GDP (consumer expenditure, private investment, net exports) is minus 180, minus 120, +60, minus 330, minus 330, which adds up to minus 900. Thus, viewed over five years, the fiscal stimulus package is a way to get an extra $600 billion of public spending at the cost of $900 billion in private expenditure. This is a bad deal.
The fiscal stimulus package of 2009 was a mistake. It follows that an additional stimulus package in 2010 would be another mistake."
- O Que Significa "no Longo Prazo"?
'In the long run, we are all dead': What did Keynes really mean? The impression that Krugman wants to convey is that only the stimulus-crowd wants to make things better now, but is he right? By Mario Rizzo, "... In empirical...
- Evidências Do Fracasso Da Política Expansionista Americana
Daily Policy Digest The U.S. Experience with Fiscal Stimulus The Obama administration's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), better known as the "stimulus" package, reinvigorated the national debate regarding stimulus spending and...
- O Mundo Dos Emergentes
Gráfico interativo de cinco indicadores macroeconômicos. IF THE euro-area debt crisis worsens, it will drag down growth in emerging economies. The good news is that whereas most developed countries have little or no room to cut interest rates or to...
- Impactos Macroeconômicos De Impostos E Compras Do Governo
Do último artigo de Robert Barro e Charles Redlick: "For U.S. annual data that include WWII, the estimated multiplier for defense spending is 0.6-0.7 at the median unemployment rate. There is some evidence that this multiplier rises with the extent of...
- Estímulo Fiscal é Uma Refeição Gratuita?
Para Robert Barro, não. E o multiplicador de gastos do governo é insignificativamente diferente de zero: "What do the data show about multipliers? Because it is not easy to separate movements in government purchases from overall business fluctuations,...