Economia
- The Making Of A Euromess
É o título desta crónica de Krugman que toma o caso de Espanha como referência mas que será igualmente aplicável a outros países e em particular a Portugal. E o minimo que se pode dizer é que o prognóstico não é muito animador. Utilizando...
- Incerteza Política
The Uncertainty Debate: Now a Hot Research Topic Posted on October 7, 2013 by John Taylor The impact of uncertainty—in particular policy uncertainty—is a hot topic of debate in the press and the blogosphere. So the Dallas Fed...
- Ratings Das Agencias De Crédito Tem Pouco Valor Preditivo
Credit ratings and credit risk Jens Hilscher [email protected] Mungo Wilsony [email protected] This version: June 2011 Abstract This paper investigates the information in corporate credit ratings. We examine the extent to which...
- Médias, Agregados E Teoria Econômica
Averages and Aggregatesby Louis M. SpadaroIn an interesting, though apparently neglected, aside, Professor Hayek has remarked that " … neither aggregates nor averages do act upon one another, and it will never be possible to establish necessary connections...
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O meio-ambiente vai bem, obrigado Para quem gosta do tema "externalidades", "bens públicos", eis aí um bom texto (integral, para download, lá). Um trecho importante: And recent findings in climate-change science also give reason for hope. Because...
Economia
A falha das médias ou os erros da estatística e econometria
The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Sam L. Savage
A GROUNDBREAKING MUST-READ FOR ANYONE WHO MAKES BUSINESS DECISIONS IN THE
FACE OF UNCERTAINTY
In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage—known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects—describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. He explains why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as finance, healthcare, accounting, the war on terror, and climate change. Savage refers to anachronistic statistical jargon as Red Words, which he defines as things that may not be uttered in a singles bar. Instead, he presents complex concepts in plain English (Green Words), backed up by interactive simulations at www.FlawofAverages.com, which connect the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants.
Savage also presents the emerging field of Probability Management aimed at curing the Flaw of Averages through more transparent communication of uncertainty and risk. Savage argues that this is a problem that must be solved if we are to improve the stability of our economy, and that we cannot repeat the recent mistakes of applying "steam era" statistics to "information age" risks.
Mais
www.FlawofAverages.com
In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage—known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects—describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. He explains why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as finance, healthcare, accounting, the war on terror, and climate change. Savage refers to anachronistic statistical jargon as Red Words, which he defines as things that may not be uttered in a singles bar. Instead, he presents complex concepts in plain English (Green Words), backed up by interactive simulations at www.FlawofAverages.com, which connect the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants.
Savage also presents the emerging field of Probability Management aimed at curing the Flaw of Averages through more transparent communication of uncertainty and risk. Savage argues that this is a problem that must be solved if we are to improve the stability of our economy, and that we cannot repeat the recent mistakes of applying "steam era" statistics to "information age" risks.
Mais
www.FlawofAverages.com
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- The Making Of A Euromess
É o título desta crónica de Krugman que toma o caso de Espanha como referência mas que será igualmente aplicável a outros países e em particular a Portugal. E o minimo que se pode dizer é que o prognóstico não é muito animador. Utilizando...
- Incerteza Política
The Uncertainty Debate: Now a Hot Research Topic Posted on October 7, 2013 by John Taylor The impact of uncertainty—in particular policy uncertainty—is a hot topic of debate in the press and the blogosphere. So the Dallas Fed...
- Ratings Das Agencias De Crédito Tem Pouco Valor Preditivo
Credit ratings and credit risk Jens Hilscher [email protected] Mungo Wilsony [email protected] This version: June 2011 Abstract This paper investigates the information in corporate credit ratings. We examine the extent to which...
- Médias, Agregados E Teoria Econômica
Averages and Aggregatesby Louis M. SpadaroIn an interesting, though apparently neglected, aside, Professor Hayek has remarked that " … neither aggregates nor averages do act upon one another, and it will never be possible to establish necessary connections...
-
O meio-ambiente vai bem, obrigado Para quem gosta do tema "externalidades", "bens públicos", eis aí um bom texto (integral, para download, lá). Um trecho importante: And recent findings in climate-change science also give reason for hope. Because...