Economia
De Martin Wolf no FT (via Pedro Lains) do qual cito a conclusão nada optimista:
"Where does that leave peripheral countries today? In structural recession, is the answer. At some point, they have to slash fiscal deficits. Without monetary or exchange rate offsets, that seems sure to worsen the recession already caused by the collapse in their bubble-fuelled private spending. Worse, in the boom
years, these countries lost competitiveness within the eurozone. That was also inherent in the system. The interest rates set by the European Central Bank, aimed at balancing supply and demand in the zone, were too low for bubble-fuelled countries. With inflation in sectors producing non-tradeables relatively high, real interest rates were also relatively low in these countries. A loss of external competitiveness and strong domestic demand expanded external deficits.
These generated the demand needed by core countries with excess capacity. To add insult to injury, since the core country is highly competitive globally and the eurozone has a robust external position and a sound currency, the euro itself has soared in value.
This leaves peripheral countries in a trap: they cannot readily generate an external surplus; they cannot easily restart private sector borrowing; and they cannot easily sustain present fiscal deficits. Mass emigration would be a possibility, but surely not a recommendation. Mass immigration of wealthy foreigners, to live in now-cheap properties, would be far better. Yet, at worst, a lengthy slump might be needed to grind out a reduction in nominal prices and wages. Ireland seems to have accepted such a future. Spain and Greece have not. Moreover, the affected country would also suffer debt deflation: with falling nominal prices and wages, the real burden of debt denominated in euros will rise. A wave of defaults – private and even public – threaten."
- Ler Os Outros: Why Italy ? Why Not America ? - Krugman
"Specifically, the reason Greece (and Ireland, and Portugal, and to some extent Spain) are in so much trouble is that by adopting the euro they’ve left themselves with no good way out of the aftereffects of the pre-2008 bubble. To regain competitiveness,...
- Um Artigo Do Roubini
Num artigo de Roubini (via Sedes) no qual ele refere que : "For the Club Med members of the euro zone – Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal – public-debt problems come on top of a loss of international competitiveness. These countries had already lost...
- Dívida Pública - Mapa Interativo
Our interactive graphic above shows the IMF's latest forecasts (updated in October 2012) for government gross debt as a percentage of GDP through to 2017. It also allows you to input your own long-term assumptions to project the likely path of debt...
- A Dinâmica Da Dívida Pública
There are two things that matter in government-debt dynamics: the difference between real interest rates and GDP growth (r-g), and the primary budget balance as a % of GDP (ie, before interest payments). In any given period the debt stock grows by the...
- Os Estados Unidos Perto Da Bancarotta
Is the United States Bankrupt? Laurence J. Kotlikoff ".. Many would scoff at this notion. They’d point out that the country has never defaulted on its debt; that its debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio is substantially lower than that...
Economia
Um artigo muito interessante
De Martin Wolf no FT (via Pedro Lains) do qual cito a conclusão nada optimista:
"Where does that leave peripheral countries today? In structural recession, is the answer. At some point, they have to slash fiscal deficits. Without monetary or exchange rate offsets, that seems sure to worsen the recession already caused by the collapse in their bubble-fuelled private spending. Worse, in the boom
years, these countries lost competitiveness within the eurozone. That was also inherent in the system. The interest rates set by the European Central Bank, aimed at balancing supply and demand in the zone, were too low for bubble-fuelled countries. With inflation in sectors producing non-tradeables relatively high, real interest rates were also relatively low in these countries. A loss of external competitiveness and strong domestic demand expanded external deficits.
These generated the demand needed by core countries with excess capacity. To add insult to injury, since the core country is highly competitive globally and the eurozone has a robust external position and a sound currency, the euro itself has soared in value.
This leaves peripheral countries in a trap: they cannot readily generate an external surplus; they cannot easily restart private sector borrowing; and they cannot easily sustain present fiscal deficits. Mass emigration would be a possibility, but surely not a recommendation. Mass immigration of wealthy foreigners, to live in now-cheap properties, would be far better. Yet, at worst, a lengthy slump might be needed to grind out a reduction in nominal prices and wages. Ireland seems to have accepted such a future. Spain and Greece have not. Moreover, the affected country would also suffer debt deflation: with falling nominal prices and wages, the real burden of debt denominated in euros will rise. A wave of defaults – private and even public – threaten."
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- Ler Os Outros: Why Italy ? Why Not America ? - Krugman
"Specifically, the reason Greece (and Ireland, and Portugal, and to some extent Spain) are in so much trouble is that by adopting the euro they’ve left themselves with no good way out of the aftereffects of the pre-2008 bubble. To regain competitiveness,...
- Um Artigo Do Roubini
Num artigo de Roubini (via Sedes) no qual ele refere que : "For the Club Med members of the euro zone – Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal – public-debt problems come on top of a loss of international competitiveness. These countries had already lost...
- Dívida Pública - Mapa Interativo
Our interactive graphic above shows the IMF's latest forecasts (updated in October 2012) for government gross debt as a percentage of GDP through to 2017. It also allows you to input your own long-term assumptions to project the likely path of debt...
- A Dinâmica Da Dívida Pública
There are two things that matter in government-debt dynamics: the difference between real interest rates and GDP growth (r-g), and the primary budget balance as a % of GDP (ie, before interest payments). In any given period the debt stock grows by the...
- Os Estados Unidos Perto Da Bancarotta
Is the United States Bankrupt? Laurence J. Kotlikoff ".. Many would scoff at this notion. They’d point out that the country has never defaulted on its debt; that its debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio is substantially lower than that...