Economia
Esta conversa começou nos comentários ao post anterior acerca dos custos e possíveis benefícios econômicos de organizar os Jogos Olímpicos. Um comentarista anônimo (A.) me passou a referência do seguinte artigo do Andy Rose, cuja conclusão reproduzo abaixo.
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Wolfgang Fengler | The fixed cake fallacy: Why I was wrong to believe that rich countries are rich because poor countries are poor At the global level, we believed in the “dependency theory,” which assumes that rich countries acquired...
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Imagine que são os Jogos Olímpicos e ninguém aparece Olympics would earn billions, we were told. Some hope! By Alex Brummer "... It took just 72 hours after the Olympics began for it to become clear that a calamitous error had been made and...
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Brazilian Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Hu signed several trade and investment agreements that will see large inflows of Chinese cash into the Brazilian economy. Lula said a Chinese pledge to build a steel plant in Brazil port would be China's...
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Sim, é fato: muito governo pode impedir o "espetáculo do crescimento" Texto em pdf. Trade, Regulations, and Growth - Bineswaree Bolaky Caroline Freund* University of Maryland The World Bank - March 2004 Abstract: Trade does not stimulate growth...
Economia
Por que organizar os Jogos Olímpicos?
Esta conversa começou nos comentários ao post anterior acerca dos custos e possíveis benefícios econômicos de organizar os Jogos Olímpicos. Um comentarista anônimo (A.) me passou a referência do seguinte artigo do Andy Rose, cuja conclusão reproduzo abaixo.
"The motivation for hosting a mega-event like the Olympics seems elusive to economists. Plausibly measured net economic benefits are rarely large and typically negative; claims of non-economic benefits are difficult to verify. Yet in practice countries compete fiercely for the right to host such events. Why? Our recent research identifies one potential explanation; countries that host the games enjoy a substantive permanent increase in trade – the “Olympic Effect.” Similar increases in openness are observed for countries that host other mega-events, such as the World Cup and, until recently, World's Fairs. But while hosting a mega-event is sufficient to boost trade, it is not necessary. In practice, we find that countries that bid for the Olympics unsuccessfully also experience a boost in trade, comparable to that received by actual Olympic hosts. This finding implies that the Olympic Effect on trade does not stem from a change in economic fundamentals, caused by the activity or infrastructure associated with hosting the Olympics. Instead, our empirical findings suggest that bidding for the Olympics is a costly policy signal that is followed by future liberalisation. For a country pursuing a trade-oriented development strategy, such an outcome would clearly be attractive."
Ou seja, o efeito sobre comércio, de acordo com o paper original parece vir de uma decisão anterior de engajamento em integração e liberalização comercial, cuja sinalização (custosa, portanto crível) se daria por meio do processo de candidatura à organização dos Jogos. O curioso, portanto, é que - orgulho nacional à parte - o melhor parece ser se candidatar (e sinalizar o engajamento) e perder (o que poupa os custos), embora, é óbvio, houvesse uma forma segura de fazer isto a própria sinalização perderia força.
Honestamente, não sei se é este mesmo o mecanismo, mas a abordagem é original e inteligente. Comentários?
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- Desenvolvimento
Wolfgang Fengler | The fixed cake fallacy: Why I was wrong to believe that rich countries are rich because poor countries are poor At the global level, we believed in the “dependency theory,” which assumes that rich countries acquired...
- Jogos Sem Visitas
Imagine que são os Jogos Olímpicos e ninguém aparece Olympics would earn billions, we were told. Some hope! By Alex Brummer "... It took just 72 hours after the Olympics began for it to become clear that a calamitous error had been made and...
- Tpp - Novo Bloco Econômico "trans-pacific Partnership"
Free-trade agreements - Opening up the Pacific MOST Americans have not heard of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free-trade area of countries dotted around the Pacific Ocean. They will soon. This weekend it has suddenly emerged as the most promising...
- Cooperação Econômica China-brasil Na Infraestrutura
Brazilian Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Hu signed several trade and investment agreements that will see large inflows of Chinese cash into the Brazilian economy. Lula said a Chinese pledge to build a steel plant in Brazil port would be China's...
-
Sim, é fato: muito governo pode impedir o "espetáculo do crescimento" Texto em pdf. Trade, Regulations, and Growth - Bineswaree Bolaky Caroline Freund* University of Maryland The World Bank - March 2004 Abstract: Trade does not stimulate growth...