Economia
Pará na The Economist.
The state of Pará occupies a vast and
woefully lawless swathe of the Amazon, forming the eastern curve of the “arc of
deforestation”. On December 11th its 4.8m voters will decide whether to split
Pará into three, creating two new states. Carajás, with a quarter of the territory
and the world’s biggest iron-ore mine, would have in Marabá potentially
Brazil’s most violent state capital with 130 murders a year per 100,000 people.
Tapajós, occupying three-fifths of the current state, would be 90% forest, with
just 1.2m people; it could become a loggers’ paradise, or, with luck, a
state-sized national park. The rump of Pará would be limited to the area around
Belém, with two-thirds of the population and most of the economic activity.
Proponents of the change argue that Pará is
too big to be run from Belém. Célio Costa, an economist, says that the extra
federal money the split would bring is fair reward, since so much of Pará is
federal forest which Brasília should be paying to manage. He also points to two
pairs of states that split previously (by government fiat, not a vote). The
resulting four all saw above-average economic growth.
Naysayers complain that the proposal is a
wheeze to extract more public money and bureaucratic jobs. Two new state
capitals will not come cheap. Lúcio Flávio Pinto, a journalist campaigning to
keep Pará whole, says that the absence of effective governance in its interior
is not a matter of mere distance: Belém’s periphery is pretty lawless too. He
reckons Pará needs a stronger tax base and more diversified economy.
A yes vote in what is the first such
plebiscite in Brazil would give impetus to dozens of dreams of new states
elsewhere. Since each Brazilian state sends three senators and a minimum of
eight deputies (out of a total of 513) to Brasília, the big winners from
splitting Pará would be northern politicians. Brazil’s more developed south
would be even more under-represented. Fortunately for the country as a whole,
the separatists in Carajás and Tapajós are likely to be outvoted by unitarian belenenses.
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Economia