Economia
Compared with the 2008 stimulus, the 2009 stimulus was larger, but the amount paid in checks was smaller and more drawn out. Nevertheless, there is still no noticeable effect on consumption. I also show the timing of the “Cash for Clunkers” program in Figure 7; it did encourage some consumption, but did not last and cannot be considered an effective method to stimulate the economy. In addition, my analysis of the government spending part of the stimulus is that it too had little positive impact.
Even frameworks that stress future consequences of current stimulus need not be long-run theories in the calendar sense. For example, if the anticipated taxes required to pay off or service current deficits consist of rises in marginal income tax rates, output will be considerably lower and the real interest rates higher in a matter of a couple of years than without stimulus.
The upshot of all of this is that the anti-stimulus economists are not claiming we must trade off benefits now for some long-term pie-in-the-sky benefits. Most are saying: The stimulus route leads to (almost) no benefits now as well as costs later.
If we are all dead in the long run, then Keynes-Krugman must argue that we are all dead in the short run as well, too.
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Robert Barro, da Harvard University, investiga o tamanho dos multiplicadores de gastos e tributos e conclui, no WSJ: "We can now put the elements together to form a "five-year plan" from 2009 to 2013. The path of incremental government outlays over the...
Economia
O que significa "no longo prazo"?
'In the long run, we are all dead': What did Keynes really mean?
The impression that Krugman wants to convey is that only the stimulus-crowd wants to make things better now, but is he right?
"... In empirical work, John Taylor finds that to the extent there was some effect of the fiscal stimulus it was very small and lasted only a matter of two or three months for each major injection. So I guess the long run is four or five months by this reckoning:Compared with the 2008 stimulus, the 2009 stimulus was larger, but the amount paid in checks was smaller and more drawn out. Nevertheless, there is still no noticeable effect on consumption. I also show the timing of the “Cash for Clunkers” program in Figure 7; it did encourage some consumption, but did not last and cannot be considered an effective method to stimulate the economy. In addition, my analysis of the government spending part of the stimulus is that it too had little positive impact.
Even frameworks that stress future consequences of current stimulus need not be long-run theories in the calendar sense. For example, if the anticipated taxes required to pay off or service current deficits consist of rises in marginal income tax rates, output will be considerably lower and the real interest rates higher in a matter of a couple of years than without stimulus.
The upshot of all of this is that the anti-stimulus economists are not claiming we must trade off benefits now for some long-term pie-in-the-sky benefits. Most are saying: The stimulus route leads to (almost) no benefits now as well as costs later.
If we are all dead in the long run, then Keynes-Krugman must argue that we are all dead in the short run as well, too.
Mais
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- Lições Da Grande Depressão
Causas da Grande Depressão Hoover and Roosevelt − The 1920s was a period of healthy economic growth until President Herbert Hoover instituted anti-market, anti-globalization, anti-immigration, and pro-cartelization policies, Edward Prescott...
- O Multiplicador Keynesiano Pode Ser Negativo
KEYNESIAN GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS AND SPILLOVERS IN THE EURO AREA by Tobias Cwik and Volker Wieland Abstract The global financial crisis has lead to a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal stimulus. Advocates of...
- Multiplicador De Zero
Debating economic policy Stimulus, austerity and the weltgeist Mike Grabell is out with a book-length investigation of the stimulus, titled "Money Well Spent?" In an interview last week on NPR's Fresh Air, Mr Grabell said the stimulus effort had...
- Política Keynesiana Não Está Funcionando
-- Initial claims for unemployment benefits surged to 500,000 in mid-August, a level more typical of a recession than a recovery. The bad news confirmed what conservative economists have been saying for some time: The biggest Keynesian stimulus in U.S....
- O Estímulo Fiscal, Um Ano Depois
Robert Barro, da Harvard University, investiga o tamanho dos multiplicadores de gastos e tributos e conclui, no WSJ: "We can now put the elements together to form a "five-year plan" from 2009 to 2013. The path of incremental government outlays over the...