Economia
Pronunciando-se sobre a proposta francesa para um "roll-over" da dívida grega detida pelos investidores privados a Standard & Poors veio considerar que em ambas as opções colocadas aos investidores no âmbito daquela proposta "investors would purchase new securities with somewhat higher interest rate coupons than the maturing debt. But unlike other investments investors would have been likely to make with the proceeds of maturing Greek debt, the New Five-Year Bonds and the New Thirty-Year Bonds would have restricted transferability for extended periods--in our view because, given current market conditions, both the New Five-Year Bonds and the New Thirty-Year Bonds would likely trade at a price significantly below par. In addition, we note that the tenor of the New Thirty-Year Bonds under the first option is far longer than the original maturities of any outstanding Greek government bonds, and we take the view that the intent of such extended maturities is to slow the timing of future principal repayments quite significantly. We also note that speculative-grade rated issuers rarely, if ever, are able to access market financing with such a long tenor. Taking these considerations into account, we believe that both options represent (i) a "similar restructuring" (ii) are "distressed" and (iii) offer "less value than the promise of the original securities" under our criteria. Consequently, if either option were implemented in its current form, absent other mitigating information, we would likely view it as constituting a default under our criteria". Acrescentando que "In that event, we would likely lower Greece's issuer credit rating to 'SD', indicating that it had effectively restructured some, but not all, of its bond debt. We also note that an 'SD' action on the issuer credit rating would likely occur only once, and that, were either FBF refinancing option implemented, a 'D' issue rating would be assigned to the maturing Greek government bonds upon their refinancing in 2011" (meus sublinhados).
O que parece colocar em causa uma das condições daquela proposta que recorde-se consistia em que a operação não desencadeasse uma descida do rating da dívida grega (nova ou existente) para o nível de default.
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A seguir a Portugal foi a vez de a Irlanda sofrer uma descida do rating da Moodys de Baa3 para Ba1. Esta descida ocorre não obstante a Moodys reconhecer que a Irlanda tem revelado "a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation and has, to date, delivered...
- O Texto Da Proposta Francesa
Está acessível aqui (via Alphaville). De acordo com os pressupostos do documento documento o montante dos títulos que vencem até meados de 2014 ascende a 85,5 mil milhões de euros dos quais 25 mil nilhões de euros são detidos pelo BCE e os restantes...
- Opções Para Um Roll-over Da Dívida Grega
Chamo a atenção para um post do Aphaville em que citanmdo um analista do banco Nomura aponta três alternativas possíveis para um roll-over da dívida grega: "(1) bond maturity extensions, which almost certainly would result in default or selective...
- Ainda Sobre A Grécia - As Declarações Do Governador Do Banco De França
Numa altura em que crescem as dúvidas (ver aqui e aqui) crescem as dúvidas quanto à capacidade do Governo grego para fazer aprovar as novas medidas de austeridade exigidas pela União Europeia e o FMI chamo a atenção para as declarações do Governador...
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Economia
A posição da Standard & Poors sobre a proposta francesa
Pronunciando-se sobre a proposta francesa para um "roll-over" da dívida grega detida pelos investidores privados a Standard & Poors veio considerar que em ambas as opções colocadas aos investidores no âmbito daquela proposta "investors would purchase new securities with somewhat higher interest rate coupons than the maturing debt. But unlike other investments investors would have been likely to make with the proceeds of maturing Greek debt, the New Five-Year Bonds and the New Thirty-Year Bonds would have restricted transferability for extended periods--in our view because, given current market conditions, both the New Five-Year Bonds and the New Thirty-Year Bonds would likely trade at a price significantly below par. In addition, we note that the tenor of the New Thirty-Year Bonds under the first option is far longer than the original maturities of any outstanding Greek government bonds, and we take the view that the intent of such extended maturities is to slow the timing of future principal repayments quite significantly. We also note that speculative-grade rated issuers rarely, if ever, are able to access market financing with such a long tenor. Taking these considerations into account, we believe that both options represent (i) a "similar restructuring" (ii) are "distressed" and (iii) offer "less value than the promise of the original securities" under our criteria. Consequently, if either option were implemented in its current form, absent other mitigating information, we would likely view it as constituting a default under our criteria". Acrescentando que "In that event, we would likely lower Greece's issuer credit rating to 'SD', indicating that it had effectively restructured some, but not all, of its bond debt. We also note that an 'SD' action on the issuer credit rating would likely occur only once, and that, were either FBF refinancing option implemented, a 'D' issue rating would be assigned to the maturing Greek government bonds upon their refinancing in 2011" (meus sublinhados).
O que parece colocar em causa uma das condições daquela proposta que recorde-se consistia em que a operação não desencadeasse uma descida do rating da dívida grega (nova ou existente) para o nível de default.
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- Moodys Desce O Rating Da Irlanda
A seguir a Portugal foi a vez de a Irlanda sofrer uma descida do rating da Moodys de Baa3 para Ba1. Esta descida ocorre não obstante a Moodys reconhecer que a Irlanda tem revelado "a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation and has, to date, delivered...
- O Texto Da Proposta Francesa
Está acessível aqui (via Alphaville). De acordo com os pressupostos do documento documento o montante dos títulos que vencem até meados de 2014 ascende a 85,5 mil milhões de euros dos quais 25 mil nilhões de euros são detidos pelo BCE e os restantes...
- Opções Para Um Roll-over Da Dívida Grega
Chamo a atenção para um post do Aphaville em que citanmdo um analista do banco Nomura aponta três alternativas possíveis para um roll-over da dívida grega: "(1) bond maturity extensions, which almost certainly would result in default or selective...
- Ainda Sobre A Grécia - As Declarações Do Governador Do Banco De França
Numa altura em que crescem as dúvidas (ver aqui e aqui) crescem as dúvidas quanto à capacidade do Governo grego para fazer aprovar as novas medidas de austeridade exigidas pela União Europeia e o FMI chamo a atenção para as declarações do Governador...
- Mergulhando Na Dívida
Gastos do governo americano, dívida, juros e outros indicadores: WASHINGTON (AP) -- Figures on US government spending and debt (last six digits are eliminated). The government's fiscal year runs Oct. 1 through Sept. 30. Total public debt...