Economia
Bom presente para...mim
Published by EH.NET (July 2003)
Peter Bernholz, _Monetary Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships_. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2003. xi + 210 pp. $85 (cloth), ISBN: 1-84376-155-6.
Reviewed for EH.NET by Pierre Siklos, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University.
"But I beg of you not to despise monetary history; for I am sure that the monetary policy of a nation is often unintelligible without some understanding of the queer institutional jungles out of which it has sprung." -- D. H. Robertson
The study of monetary economics has, of late, largely left behind any pretensions of caring about the role of monetary aggregates. Typically, the conduct of monetary policy is about setting an interest rate instrument in response to some measure of output and inflation. However, as Peter Bernholz reminds us, inflation in historical terms is still largely about the behavior of the money supply and the varieties of political and other institutions from which monetary policy emanates. The book does not restrict itself to studying the perverse cases of hyperinflation (i.e., inflation rates of fifty percent or more on a monthly basis) where the power of excessive money growth is easy for everyone to see. Instead Bernholz devotes considerable space to attempting to understand what drives policy makers to permit moderate rates of inflation. The definition of moderate inflation is never sufficiently clear but this should not be held against the author. A difficulty of course is that what might be considered moderate in one country could be deemed as excessive in another. Hence, five to ten percent inflation rates would be intolerable in Germany while many Latin and South American countries might consider such an inflation performance to be stellar.
In any event, it is refreshing to see that the interaction of money and politics is not dead and that a good deal of what drives the inflation process across countries and over time can be explained in these terms. Following a general overview of the historical experience with inflation from Roman times to the present Bernholz next considers how inflation is generated under a metallic monetary regime. While the basic analysis will be familiar to all who are interested in metallic monetary standards the book instead highlights what can go wrong especially when politics put pressure on the rulers or policy makers to "beat" the system resulting in inflation. Next, Bernholz considers what he refers to as "moderate" inflation that arises under a paper money standard. Once again the long historical view is taken going all the way back to the first known paper money inflation, namely the one that took place in China under the Ming Dynasty. Once again the message is that there are varieties of moderate inflation rates and these can be explained by political events that drive politicians and institutions to generate more or less inflation than might be economically desirable. A separate chapter asks how moderate inflations are ended and, not surprisingly, the answer is complicated since the menu of available options, from outright institutional reforms to the adoption of a currency board arrangement, are available to policy makers. Indeed, history appears to teach us that policies leading to the end of mild bouts of inflation involve a sequence of policies and that the sequence need not be the same for all countries. Hence, there is no 'one size fits all' solution to ending inflation.
Two separate chapters deal with hyperinflations (chapters 5 and 8) and, while much of the material has been covered elsewhere, Bernholz does bring a fresh perspective on the conditions needed to successfully end a hyperinflation even though it is never entirely clear how success is precisely measured. Nevertheless, it is useful to know that there appears to be a threshold level of institutional reforms necessary before a successful end to hyperinflation is declared, even if this reviewer disagrees with the characterization that the ending of the first Hungarian hyperinflation (post World War I) belongs to the successful category while the end to the second Hungarian hyperinflation (post World War II) should be viewed as being unsuccessful. The category of "least" successful ends to high inflation all took place during the 1990s and cast a shadow on the role of the IMF, in particular, as an outside force for good advice on how to conduct monetary policy.
Finally, Bernholz devotes one chapter (chapter 6) to explaining, in both formal terms and in historical terms, that inflation produces forces that lead the public to favor or discard alternative media of exchange. There is, of course, a large literature on the currency substitution phenomenon, and Bernholz does a fine job explaining the operation of Gresham's Law (i.e., currency substitution under fixed exchange rates) and what he refers to a Thier's Law (i.e., currency substitution under a floating exchange rate system). Here the volume suspends a direct role for institutional factors and instead highlights society's continued strong desire for a stable currency as most conducive to providing good economic performance.
All in all, Peter Bernholz has provided us with a highly interesting and illuminating account of the vast sweep of monetary history in easy to read historical terms. The writing is crisp and the knowledge of monetary history is breathtaking. Students of monetary history will no doubt find this a fascinating and useful volume.
Pierre Siklos is Professor of Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University, co-editor of the _North American Journal of Economics and Finance_, and Associate Director of the Viessmann Centre on Modern Europe. Recent publications include "Inflation and Hyperinflation" _The Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History_ (2003); "Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies: The Canadian and Australian Experience" (with Jeff Rogers, former MABE student), _Journal of International Money and Finance_, 22 (June 2003); and _The Changing Face of Central Banking: Evolutionary Trends since World War II_ (Cambridge University Press, 2002).
Copyright (c) 2003 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net Administrator ([email protected]; Telephone: 513-529-2851; Fax: 513-529-3308). Published by EH.Net (July 2003). All EH.Net reviews are archived at http://www.eh.net/BookReview
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Economia
Bom presente para...mim
Published by EH.NET (July 2003)
Peter Bernholz, _Monetary Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships_. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2003. xi + 210 pp. $85 (cloth), ISBN: 1-84376-155-6.
Reviewed for EH.NET by Pierre Siklos, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University.
"But I beg of you not to despise monetary history; for I am sure that the monetary policy of a nation is often unintelligible without some understanding of the queer institutional jungles out of which it has sprung." -- D. H. Robertson
The study of monetary economics has, of late, largely left behind any pretensions of caring about the role of monetary aggregates. Typically, the conduct of monetary policy is about setting an interest rate instrument in response to some measure of output and inflation. However, as Peter Bernholz reminds us, inflation in historical terms is still largely about the behavior of the money supply and the varieties of political and other institutions from which monetary policy emanates. The book does not restrict itself to studying the perverse cases of hyperinflation (i.e., inflation rates of fifty percent or more on a monthly basis) where the power of excessive money growth is easy for everyone to see. Instead Bernholz devotes considerable space to attempting to understand what drives policy makers to permit moderate rates of inflation. The definition of moderate inflation is never sufficiently clear but this should not be held against the author. A difficulty of course is that what might be considered moderate in one country could be deemed as excessive in another. Hence, five to ten percent inflation rates would be intolerable in Germany while many Latin and South American countries might consider such an inflation performance to be stellar.
In any event, it is refreshing to see that the interaction of money and politics is not dead and that a good deal of what drives the inflation process across countries and over time can be explained in these terms. Following a general overview of the historical experience with inflation from Roman times to the present Bernholz next considers how inflation is generated under a metallic monetary regime. While the basic analysis will be familiar to all who are interested in metallic monetary standards the book instead highlights what can go wrong especially when politics put pressure on the rulers or policy makers to "beat" the system resulting in inflation. Next, Bernholz considers what he refers to as "moderate" inflation that arises under a paper money standard. Once again the long historical view is taken going all the way back to the first known paper money inflation, namely the one that took place in China under the Ming Dynasty. Once again the message is that there are varieties of moderate inflation rates and these can be explained by political events that drive politicians and institutions to generate more or less inflation than might be economically desirable. A separate chapter asks how moderate inflations are ended and, not surprisingly, the answer is complicated since the menu of available options, from outright institutional reforms to the adoption of a currency board arrangement, are available to policy makers. Indeed, history appears to teach us that policies leading to the end of mild bouts of inflation involve a sequence of policies and that the sequence need not be the same for all countries. Hence, there is no 'one size fits all' solution to ending inflation.
Two separate chapters deal with hyperinflations (chapters 5 and 8) and, while much of the material has been covered elsewhere, Bernholz does bring a fresh perspective on the conditions needed to successfully end a hyperinflation even though it is never entirely clear how success is precisely measured. Nevertheless, it is useful to know that there appears to be a threshold level of institutional reforms necessary before a successful end to hyperinflation is declared, even if this reviewer disagrees with the characterization that the ending of the first Hungarian hyperinflation (post World War I) belongs to the successful category while the end to the second Hungarian hyperinflation (post World War II) should be viewed as being unsuccessful. The category of "least" successful ends to high inflation all took place during the 1990s and cast a shadow on the role of the IMF, in particular, as an outside force for good advice on how to conduct monetary policy.
Finally, Bernholz devotes one chapter (chapter 6) to explaining, in both formal terms and in historical terms, that inflation produces forces that lead the public to favor or discard alternative media of exchange. There is, of course, a large literature on the currency substitution phenomenon, and Bernholz does a fine job explaining the operation of Gresham's Law (i.e., currency substitution under fixed exchange rates) and what he refers to a Thier's Law (i.e., currency substitution under a floating exchange rate system). Here the volume suspends a direct role for institutional factors and instead highlights society's continued strong desire for a stable currency as most conducive to providing good economic performance.
All in all, Peter Bernholz has provided us with a highly interesting and illuminating account of the vast sweep of monetary history in easy to read historical terms. The writing is crisp and the knowledge of monetary history is breathtaking. Students of monetary history will no doubt find this a fascinating and useful volume.
Pierre Siklos is Professor of Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University, co-editor of the _North American Journal of Economics and Finance_, and Associate Director of the Viessmann Centre on Modern Europe. Recent publications include "Inflation and Hyperinflation" _The Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History_ (2003); "Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies: The Canadian and Australian Experience" (with Jeff Rogers, former MABE student), _Journal of International Money and Finance_, 22 (June 2003); and _The Changing Face of Central Banking: Evolutionary Trends since World War II_ (Cambridge University Press, 2002).
Copyright (c) 2003 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net Administrator ([email protected]; Telephone: 513-529-2851; Fax: 513-529-3308). Published by EH.Net (July 2003). All EH.Net reviews are archived at http://www.eh.net/BookReview
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- Fed Adota Virtual Regime De Metas Para A Inflação
Release Date: January 25, 2012For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Following careful deliberations at its recent meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has reached broad agreement on the following principles regarding its longer-run goals and monetary...
- Metas Da Inflação
Inflation Targeting Hits the WallMises Daily:Wednesday, February 01, 2012 by Antony P. MuellerThe financial-market crisis is not over but has grown into a vicious sovereign-debt crisis. Nevertheless, monetary policy makers of the major economies go on...
- Moeda E O Estado Nacional - O Papel De Instituições Monetárias Em Provocar Crises
MONEY AND THE NATION STATE The Financial Revolution, Government and the World Monetary System Edited by Kevin Dowd, Richard H. Timberlake, Jr. Foreword by Merton H. Miller Are monetary and banking problems due to a few misguided policies or incompetent...
- As Orígens Da Crise
John B. Taylor identifica a política monetária excessiva como a causa da crise:"... Monetary excesses were the main cause of the boom. The Fed held its target interest rate, especially in 2003-2005, well below known monetary guidelines that say what...
-
O governo brasileiro tomou a decisão correta em 2003 ? O Blanchard fez as contas e concluiu que : This paper argues that this is the situation the Brazilian economy found itself in in 2002 and 2003. It presents a model of the interaction between...