Economia
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets:
What Have We Learned So Far?
Bassam Fattouh Lutz Kilian Lavan Mahadeva
Oxford Institute for University of Michigan Oxford Institute for
Energy Studies CEPR Energy Studies
SOAS
March 18, 2012
Abstract: A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by
economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in
turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has
been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting
this view. We identify six strands in the literature corresponding to different empirical methodologies and
discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing
evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003.
Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common
economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.
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Economia
O papel da especulação no mercado de petrôleo
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets:
What Have We Learned So Far?
Bassam Fattouh Lutz Kilian Lavan Mahadeva
Oxford Institute for University of Michigan Oxford Institute for
Energy Studies CEPR Energy Studies
SOAS
March 18, 2012
Abstract: A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by
economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in
turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has
been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting
this view. We identify six strands in the literature corresponding to different empirical methodologies and
discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing
evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003.
Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common
economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.
Mais
loading...
- 300!
-- Site Summary --- Visits ...
- Convite - Apresentação Do Boletim De Conjuntura
Fórum de debate - Apresentação do Boletim de Conjuntura Abril 2012 do Centro de Economia Aplicada no Auditório do CCSA da UFS Programação: · 19:10h: Abertura (Rogério) ...
- Ranking Da Qualidade Da Educação Universitária Segundo O Estudo Do British Council
EDUCATION INTELLIGENCE International Education Index – comparative perspective of 20 countries 02/06/2011 OVERALL Rank ...
- Taxas De Juro 2011 ("policy Rates" Dos Bancos Centrais)
Taxas de juro anuais (Abril 2011)• Bank of Canada 1.00%•Bank of England ...
- Mergulhando Na Dívida
Gastos do governo americano, dívida, juros e outros indicadores: WASHINGTON (AP) -- Figures on US government spending and debt (last six digits are eliminated). The government's fiscal year runs Oct. 1 through Sept. 30. Total public debt...