Economia
Não-ergodicidade
Non-Ergodic Economics
Stochastic multiplicative growth, specifically geometric Brownian
motion, plays a central role in finance an in economics. The non-ergodicity of
this process manifests itself as a difference between ensemble and time average
growth rates. Much of the current formalism of economics, however, ignores this.
Systems are often analysed as though they were in equilibrium and ergodic. This
is most notable in the status ensemble averages (expectation values) enjoy in
classic economics problems where time averages would be appropriate. The
conceptual confusion can be traced back over the centuries all the way to the
beginning of probability theory in 1654. While the advent of probabilistic
methods in physics coincides with the beginning of the ergodicity debate in the
19th century, economics imported its probabilistic tools from a period predating
the notion of ergodicity by two centuries. This early branching off of the
economic discipline has significant consequences today for our understanding of
risk management, financial market stability, and -- perhaps most importantly --
the dynamics of economic inequality.
Ole's research interests are
reflected in his works over the last three years: Economics ruling out time: http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1578 Financial market stability: http://arxiv.org/abs/1101.4548 A classic problem: http://arxiv.org/abs/1011.4404 Risk management: http://arxiv.org/abs/0902.2965
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As causas da grande estagnação:
veja aqui: http://www.economist.com/node/18276872
TOPIC: Tyler Cowen »Technology: Time is money
Responsible Keynesianism: To oppose the surplus is to will the debt
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Mais debate: ...
Economia