Economia
"(...)
If it left the euro zone, Greece could reap the substantial benefits of a currency depreciation, but doing so would also set off huge runs on banks. And the country has no alternative paper currency ready for use.
If you are a euro optimist, you might believe that the day of reckoning for Greece will be stalled long enough for Portugal, Ireland, Spain and possibly Italy and Belgium to recapitalize their banks and trim their government budgets. You might believe that of the Greeks will eventually default, but that by the time the contagion effects are checked, the Greeks will have pulled in some aid, and the global impact will be a mere hiccup instead of a new financial crisis. But that still will leave Greece with no clear economic path forward. For a best-case scenario, that’s not very good.
If you are a pessimist, you might see such a response as an unworkable plan of naïve technocrats. Here’s your line of reasoning: At some point along the way, democracy is likely to intervene: either Greek voters will refuse further austerity and foreign domination, or voters from northern Europe will send a clear electoral message that they don’t support bailouts. And there’s a good chance one or both of those events will happen before a broader European bank recapitalization can be achieved. In the meantime, who wants to put extra capital into those ailing Irish, Portuguese, and Spanish banks anyway?
In an even bleaker scenario, bank recapitalization won’t be realized anytime soon and those same economies will show few signs of growing out of their debts. A broader financial crash will result, and it won’t be contained by an easily affordable bailout."
(Excerto deste artigo)
- Can The Euro Area Hit The Rewind Button? - Barry Eichengreen
Num artigo do passado dia 23 de Julho, Eichengreen considera que a criação do euro foi um gigantesco erro: "Creating a single currency without also creating a single bank regulator, an emergency lender, and a credible set of fiscal rules gave...
- Ler Os Outros: Sobre A Grécia
Dois excelentes artigos sobre a situação na Grécia. No primeiro artigo, publicado no WSJ, os Professores John Cochrane e Anil Kashyap referem a propósito da proposta alemã de que os bancos que "the only way to get banks to "voluntarily"...
- A Orígem Da Crise Europeia
To Thrive, Euro Countries Must Cut Welfare State By Fredrik Erixon "...Take the four countries at the epicenter of the euro-area crisis: Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. They are in many ways different, but they have three important characteristics...
- Bancos E Governos
Phillip Bagus explica: "... Today's banks are not free-market institutions. They live in a symbiosis with governments that they are financing. The banks' survival depends on privileges and government interventions. Such an intervention explains...
- A Grécia (e Outros Países) é Mais Pobre Do Que Parece
Tyler Cowen, sobre a crise grega, em artigo no NYT: "GREECE is not the only country that suddenly feels poorer. Britain faces budget deficits at about 12 percent of G.D.P., and Italy has a debt-to-G.D.P. ratio of 110 percent. In the United States, the...
Economia
Ler os Outros: Choices for Greece - Tyler Cowen
"(...)
If it left the euro zone, Greece could reap the substantial benefits of a currency depreciation, but doing so would also set off huge runs on banks. And the country has no alternative paper currency ready for use.
If you are a euro optimist, you might believe that the day of reckoning for Greece will be stalled long enough for Portugal, Ireland, Spain and possibly Italy and Belgium to recapitalize their banks and trim their government budgets. You might believe that of the Greeks will eventually default, but that by the time the contagion effects are checked, the Greeks will have pulled in some aid, and the global impact will be a mere hiccup instead of a new financial crisis. But that still will leave Greece with no clear economic path forward. For a best-case scenario, that’s not very good.
If you are a pessimist, you might see such a response as an unworkable plan of naïve technocrats. Here’s your line of reasoning: At some point along the way, democracy is likely to intervene: either Greek voters will refuse further austerity and foreign domination, or voters from northern Europe will send a clear electoral message that they don’t support bailouts. And there’s a good chance one or both of those events will happen before a broader European bank recapitalization can be achieved. In the meantime, who wants to put extra capital into those ailing Irish, Portuguese, and Spanish banks anyway?
In an even bleaker scenario, bank recapitalization won’t be realized anytime soon and those same economies will show few signs of growing out of their debts. A broader financial crash will result, and it won’t be contained by an easily affordable bailout."
(Excerto deste artigo)
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- Can The Euro Area Hit The Rewind Button? - Barry Eichengreen
Num artigo do passado dia 23 de Julho, Eichengreen considera que a criação do euro foi um gigantesco erro: "Creating a single currency without also creating a single bank regulator, an emergency lender, and a credible set of fiscal rules gave...
- Ler Os Outros: Sobre A Grécia
Dois excelentes artigos sobre a situação na Grécia. No primeiro artigo, publicado no WSJ, os Professores John Cochrane e Anil Kashyap referem a propósito da proposta alemã de que os bancos que "the only way to get banks to "voluntarily"...
- A Orígem Da Crise Europeia
To Thrive, Euro Countries Must Cut Welfare State By Fredrik Erixon "...Take the four countries at the epicenter of the euro-area crisis: Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. They are in many ways different, but they have three important characteristics...
- Bancos E Governos
Phillip Bagus explica: "... Today's banks are not free-market institutions. They live in a symbiosis with governments that they are financing. The banks' survival depends on privileges and government interventions. Such an intervention explains...
- A Grécia (e Outros Países) é Mais Pobre Do Que Parece
Tyler Cowen, sobre a crise grega, em artigo no NYT: "GREECE is not the only country that suddenly feels poorer. Britain faces budget deficits at about 12 percent of G.D.P., and Italy has a debt-to-G.D.P. ratio of 110 percent. In the United States, the...