Goldman Sachs prognose da Copa
Economia

Goldman Sachs prognose da Copa


The World Cup and Economics 2014

A Statistical Model of the 2014 World Cup

Today we introduce our statistical model for predicting the outcome of the 2014 World Cup. At a very high level, our approach is as follows:
■  We construct a stochastic model that generates a distribution of outcomes for each of the 64 matches of the 2014 World Cup, from the opener between Brazil and Croatia on June 12 in São Paulo through the final on July 13 in Rio de Janeiro.
There are four main reasons why the model favours Brazil by such a large margin:

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