Fim da "grande moderação"
"... We stand at a momentous point in macroeconomic policy thinking. A couple of years ago, it was possible to argue that monetary arrangements were good enough to avoid, or at least temper, nasty economic developments. We understood enough, apparently, to avoid the mistakes of the 1970s. We were living through the Great Moderation, the Great Stability or, as Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, once put it, the NICE (non-inflationary continuous expansion) decade.
Two years later, after the onset of the biggest financial meltdown in living memory and the deepest, most synchronised, global downswing since the 1930s, it is no longer obvious that the Great Moderation amounted to much. Policymakers may have avoided a repeat of the 1970s, with its noxious mixture of high inflation and stagnant growth, but it is now difficult to talk with a straight face of Moderation, Stability or NICE-ness.
The Great Moderation was a story about the reduced volatility of output and inflation and "no more boom and bust", which Gordon Brown probably wishes he had never uttered. There is no doubt that, for a while, economic developments were favourable. From the mid-1980s in the US and the mid-1990s in the UK, it appeared that economic life had become more stable. The question all along was whether this stemmed from structural changes in economic behaviour, from the impact of new, and improved, policy frameworks, or just good luck..." --
Leia mais nesta crítica fundamental da política macroeconômica da actualidade: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stephen-king/stephen-king-good-luck-not-good-providence-was-at-the-core-of-happier-times-1712416.html
- Política Macroeconômica - Reconsiderações
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Research Department Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy Prepared by Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Paolo Mauro The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew...
- Estabilidade Financeira E Política Monetária
Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: How Closely Interlinked? by Frank Smets European Central Bank Abstract The recent financial crisis has again raised the question to what extent price-stability-oriented monetary policy frameworks should take...
- Simposio Em Rio Sobre O Futuro De Bancos Centrais
The Future of Central Banking: Inflation Targeting versus Financial Stability The Challenge The global financial crisis 2008-2009 led to a profound rethinking of the pre-crisis monetary policy consensus. Since the great moderation...
- Prêmio Nobel Para Macroeconomistas Thomas Sargent E Christopher Sims
Por - | AFP O Prêmio Nobel de Economia de 2011 foi atribuído nesta segunda-feira aos americanos Thomas J. Sargent e Christopher A. Sims, anunciou o comitê Nobel em Estocolmo. Os dois economistas foram premiados por "sua pesquisa empírica sobre...
- Economics One
É o novo blog do John Taylor. A respeito da controvérsia sobre a "falência da teoria macroeconômica", iniciada pelo Paul Krugman, Taylor comenta: "In my view, the financial crisis does not provide any evidence of a failure of modern economics. Rather...