Economia
(Re)lendo o relatório do FMI (Global Financial Stability Report) notei (pag. 24) que do 1,4 milhões de milhões de dólares de estimativas de perdas "apenas" 725-820 mil milhões (ou seja cerca de 55%) afectam os balanços dos bancos. Do restante, 150-250 mil milhões (ou seja cerca de 14,3% do total) afectam seguradoras, 125-250 mil milhões (13,4%) fundos de pensões, 100-135 mil milhões (8,4%) o Governo dos EUA através da Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac e finalmente 115-225 mil milhões (12,1%) hedge funds e outras instituições, a respeito dos quais Nouriel Roubini refere o seguinte:
"the "shadow banking system” (as defined by the PIMCO folks) or more precisely the “shadow financial system” (as it is composed by non-bank financial institutions) will soon get into serious trouble. This shadow financial system is composed of financial institutions that – like banks – borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets. This system includes: SIVs, conduits, money market funds, monolines, investment banks, hedge funds and other non-bank financial institutions. All these institutions are subject to market risk, credit risk (given their risky investments) and especially liquidity/rollover risk as their short term liquid liabilities can be rolled off easily while their assets are more long term and illiquid. Unlike banks these non-bank financial institutions don’t have direct or indirect access to the central bank’s lender of last resort support as they are not depository institutions. Thus, in the case of financial distress and/or illiquidity they may go bankrupt because of both insolvency and/or lack of liquidity and inability to roll over or refinance their short term liabilities. Deepening problems in the economy and in the financial markets and poor risk managements will lead some of these institutions to go belly up: a few large hedge funds, a few money market funds, the entire SIV system and, possibly, one or two large and systemically important broker dealers. Dealing with the distress of this shadow financial system will be very problematic as this system – stressed by credit and liquidity problems - cannot be directly rescued by the central banks in the way that banks can."
- Mankiw’s Favorite Proposal And The Futility Of Cute Ideas
In an op-ed for the New York Times, Harvard professor N. Gregory Mankiw wrote:“My favorite proposal is to require banks, and perhaps a broad class of financial institutions, to sell contingent debt that can be converted to equity when a regulator deems...
- Como Mais Regulamentações Provocam Mais Risco
The Dodd-Frank Act versus the Rule of Law October 9, 2012 In response to the 2008 financial collapse, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Dodd-Frank increased regulation of banks, stockbrokers, insurers...
- Política Monetária Europeia
ECB Says Overnight Deposits Fall to Lowest in Seven Months By Jana Randow - Jul 12, 2012 6:52 AM GMT-0300 The European Central Bank said overnight deposits from financial institutions dropped by more than half to the lowest level...
- Modelo Errado
Financial meltdown blamed on risk models Web posted at: 2/14/2009 9:20:18 Source ::: FINANCIAL TIMES By Norma Cohen The failure of banks to count, manage and hedge their risks over the past decade is responsible both for the fantastic growth before...
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Para ler nas horas de folga... Mais um "policy analysis" para minhas horas de folga (se é que elas ainda existem...): Replacing Potemkin Capitalism: Russia's Need for a Free-Market Financial System. Trecho: On August 17, 1998, Russia devalued...
Economia
E se "salvar" os bancos não for suficiente ?
(Re)lendo o relatório do FMI (Global Financial Stability Report) notei (pag. 24) que do 1,4 milhões de milhões de dólares de estimativas de perdas "apenas" 725-820 mil milhões (ou seja cerca de 55%) afectam os balanços dos bancos. Do restante, 150-250 mil milhões (ou seja cerca de 14,3% do total) afectam seguradoras, 125-250 mil milhões (13,4%) fundos de pensões, 100-135 mil milhões (8,4%) o Governo dos EUA através da Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac e finalmente 115-225 mil milhões (12,1%) hedge funds e outras instituições, a respeito dos quais Nouriel Roubini refere o seguinte:
"the "shadow banking system” (as defined by the PIMCO folks) or more precisely the “shadow financial system” (as it is composed by non-bank financial institutions) will soon get into serious trouble. This shadow financial system is composed of financial institutions that – like banks – borrow short and in liquid forms and lend or invest long in more illiquid assets. This system includes: SIVs, conduits, money market funds, monolines, investment banks, hedge funds and other non-bank financial institutions. All these institutions are subject to market risk, credit risk (given their risky investments) and especially liquidity/rollover risk as their short term liquid liabilities can be rolled off easily while their assets are more long term and illiquid. Unlike banks these non-bank financial institutions don’t have direct or indirect access to the central bank’s lender of last resort support as they are not depository institutions. Thus, in the case of financial distress and/or illiquidity they may go bankrupt because of both insolvency and/or lack of liquidity and inability to roll over or refinance their short term liabilities. Deepening problems in the economy and in the financial markets and poor risk managements will lead some of these institutions to go belly up: a few large hedge funds, a few money market funds, the entire SIV system and, possibly, one or two large and systemically important broker dealers. Dealing with the distress of this shadow financial system will be very problematic as this system – stressed by credit and liquidity problems - cannot be directly rescued by the central banks in the way that banks can."
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- Mankiw’s Favorite Proposal And The Futility Of Cute Ideas
In an op-ed for the New York Times, Harvard professor N. Gregory Mankiw wrote:“My favorite proposal is to require banks, and perhaps a broad class of financial institutions, to sell contingent debt that can be converted to equity when a regulator deems...
- Como Mais Regulamentações Provocam Mais Risco
The Dodd-Frank Act versus the Rule of Law October 9, 2012 In response to the 2008 financial collapse, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Dodd-Frank increased regulation of banks, stockbrokers, insurers...
- Política Monetária Europeia
ECB Says Overnight Deposits Fall to Lowest in Seven Months By Jana Randow - Jul 12, 2012 6:52 AM GMT-0300 The European Central Bank said overnight deposits from financial institutions dropped by more than half to the lowest level...
- Modelo Errado
Financial meltdown blamed on risk models Web posted at: 2/14/2009 9:20:18 Source ::: FINANCIAL TIMES By Norma Cohen The failure of banks to count, manage and hedge their risks over the past decade is responsible both for the fantastic growth before...
-
Para ler nas horas de folga... Mais um "policy analysis" para minhas horas de folga (se é que elas ainda existem...): Replacing Potemkin Capitalism: Russia's Need for a Free-Market Financial System. Trecho: On August 17, 1998, Russia devalued...