Economia
- Ler Os Outros: Inflation And Debt (wonkish) - Paul Krugman
Não perder este post sobre em que Krugman comenta uma caixa do capítulo I do Economic Outrlook da OCDE sobre o efeito da inflação sobre a dívida pública (os negritos são meus): "the report has a box dismissing the possibility that a higher inflation...
- Fim Do Jogo
Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything Greece isn’t the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is...
- Crise Da Dívida Na Perspectiva Histórica
Lessons from a century of large public debt reductions and build-ups S. M. Ali Abbas Nazim Belhocine Asmaa El-Ganainy Mark Horton 18 December 2011 As policymakers continue to grapple with high debts and the troubles that come with them, this column...
- Dinâmica Da Dívida Pública
Debt dynamics The maths behind the madness The Economist online Our interactive guide to reducing government debtGOVERNMENT debt dynamics, once an esoteric subject of interest only to macroeconomists, are suddenly in vogue. With Greece...
- A Futura Da Dívida Pública: Calote
BIS Working PapersNo 300The future of public debt: prospects and implications by Stephen G Cecchetti, M S Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli Monetary and Economic Department Abstract Since the start of the financial crisis, industrial country public debt...
Economia
Crescimento econômico e dívida pública
| "Finding the tipping point -- when sovereign debt turns bad" | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Summary: Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly, the estimations control for other variables that might impact growth, such as the initial level of per-capita-GDP. |
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- Ler Os Outros: Inflation And Debt (wonkish) - Paul Krugman
Não perder este post sobre em que Krugman comenta uma caixa do capítulo I do Economic Outrlook da OCDE sobre o efeito da inflação sobre a dívida pública (os negritos são meus): "the report has a box dismissing the possibility that a higher inflation...
- Fim Do Jogo
Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything Greece isn’t the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is...
- Crise Da Dívida Na Perspectiva Histórica
Lessons from a century of large public debt reductions and build-ups S. M. Ali Abbas Nazim Belhocine Asmaa El-Ganainy Mark Horton 18 December 2011 As policymakers continue to grapple with high debts and the troubles that come with them, this column...
- Dinâmica Da Dívida Pública
Debt dynamics The maths behind the madness The Economist online Our interactive guide to reducing government debtGOVERNMENT debt dynamics, once an esoteric subject of interest only to macroeconomists, are suddenly in vogue. With Greece...
- A Futura Da Dívida Pública: Calote
BIS Working PapersNo 300The future of public debt: prospects and implications by Stephen G Cecchetti, M S Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli Monetary and Economic Department Abstract Since the start of the financial crisis, industrial country public debt...