Economia
Os expertos
Você é daqueles que entendem bulhufas de Futebol? Beleza. Sua previsões serão tão boas quanto as dos especialistas. Ao menos foi isso que o estudo abaixo encontrou em um experimento sobre a Copa de 2002. Isto é, voê estava certo: qualquer um pode debater num daqueles programas futebolísticos de domigo.
Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and
information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts
when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer
Andersson, Patric (Center for economic psychology) ; Ekman,
Mattias (Stockholm Health Economics AB) ; Edman, Jan (Penn State
University)
Abstract: This paper investigates forecasting performance and judgmental
processes of experts and non-experts in soccer. Two circumstances
motivated the paper: (i) little is known about how accurately experts
predict sports events, and (ii) recent research on human judgment
suggests that ignorance-based decision-strategies may be reliable.
About 250 participants with different levels of knowledge of soccer
took part in a survey and predicted the outcome of the first round of
World Cup 2002. It was found that the participating experts (i.e.,
sport journalists, soccer fans, and soccer coaches) were not more
accurate than the non-experts. Experts overestimated their
performance and were overconfident. While the experts claimed to have
relied on analytical approaches and much information, participants
with limited knowledge stated that their forecasts were based upon
recognition and few pieces of information. The paper concludes that a
recognition-based strategy seems to be appropriate when forecasting
worldwide soccer events.
Keywords: Expert predictions; Information use; Judgmental forecasting; Overconfidence; Recognition heuristic; Sports forecasting
Downloads:
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhb:hastba:2003_009&r=all
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Economia
Os expertos
Você é daqueles que entendem bulhufas de Futebol? Beleza. Sua previsões serão tão boas quanto as dos especialistas. Ao menos foi isso que o estudo abaixo encontrou em um experimento sobre a Copa de 2002. Isto é, voê estava certo: qualquer um pode debater num daqueles programas futebolísticos de domigo.
Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and
information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts
when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer
Andersson, Patric (Center for economic psychology) ; Ekman,
Mattias (Stockholm Health Economics AB) ; Edman, Jan (Penn State
University)
Abstract: This paper investigates forecasting performance and judgmental
processes of experts and non-experts in soccer. Two circumstances
motivated the paper: (i) little is known about how accurately experts
predict sports events, and (ii) recent research on human judgment
suggests that ignorance-based decision-strategies may be reliable.
About 250 participants with different levels of knowledge of soccer
took part in a survey and predicted the outcome of the first round of
World Cup 2002. It was found that the participating experts (i.e.,
sport journalists, soccer fans, and soccer coaches) were not more
accurate than the non-experts. Experts overestimated their
performance and were overconfident. While the experts claimed to have
relied on analytical approaches and much information, participants
with limited knowledge stated that their forecasts were based upon
recognition and few pieces of information. The paper concludes that a
recognition-based strategy seems to be appropriate when forecasting
worldwide soccer events.
Keywords: Expert predictions; Information use; Judgmental forecasting; Overconfidence; Recognition heuristic; Sports forecasting
Downloads:
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhb:hastba:2003_009&r=all
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- Dinheiro Sano
Sound Money Essay Contest “The economic and moral arguments for sound money” The Atlas Network’s Sound Money Project is proud to sponsor an essay contest for students, young faculty and policy experts who are interested in championing the cause...
- A Tirania Dos Experts
The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor by ...
- Nassim Taleb Sobre Bancos E O Sistema Financeiro
Nassim Taleb Speaks to a Clueless Congress (Part 2 of 2) Taleb criticizes the widely used risk management measurement system of Value at Risk (VaR). The members of Congress that he is speaking were completely clueless and will therefore transform...
- Economia De Futbol
From Booklist Moneyball for soccer: Soccernomics journalist Kuper (Soccer against the Enemy, 2006) and economist Szymanski (Fans of the World, Unite! 2008) apply cold, hard facts to our commonly held beliefs about the beautiful game and tell us that everything...
- O Que Causou A Crise Financeira De 2007-2008?
Dois livros bem interessantes sobre o tema: Engineering the Financial Crisis e What Caused the Financial Crisis. Sobre o primeiro, Arnold Kling escreve um excelente post, onde pondera sobre as falhas regulatórias que condicionaram a crise: "...Another...